REVIEW… Obasanjo’s bombshell and the shaky Buhari presidency

It is hard to believe that President Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency may just be kicking the bucket sooner than expected.

Many, especially his loyalists and support base, may be looking forward to a longer reign but the dynamics are changing faster than they imagine, no thanks to the President’s glaring loss of grip on the ship of state, notably security concerns.

In his response to the rise in murders, allegedly by Fulani cattle rearers, President Buhari urged invaded communities to rather learn how to accommodate and live peacefully with the herdsmen. His response, according to analysts, was an expression of insensitivity and lack of ability to manage Nigeria’s diversity.

Obasanjo’s bombshell may not have been an isolated case after all. Other prominent voices, surprisingly from the core northern ruling class, also raised voices warning of possible balkanization of the country.

Ibrahim Coomasie

The first sign of trouble for the president came from the unusual quarters. His wife’s constant warnings are now well known. But the warning recently by Chairman of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Ibrahim Coomasie that the country is dangerously drifting towards anarchy was unexpected. Coomasie has always been one of the president’s ardent supporters. He was also one of the architects of the project to return power to the north. He rose in stout defence of Buhari when questions were raised about his qualification to stand for election on grounds of not meeting basic academic qualification.

But while speaking at a conference to commemorate the 52nd anniversary of the assassination of Sir Ahmadu Bello and Abubakar Tafawa Balewa in Kaduna, he warned that Nigeria was drifting towards anarchy and risks disintegration if not arrested. He lamented that corruption and nepotism have become signatures of the incumbent administration, adding that provision of basic social services, including potable drinking water, electricity, healthcare, education, to Nigerians have been lacking.

Prof. Ango Abdullahi

Also speaking at the same event which was organized by the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation and Arewa Research and Development Project (ARDP), Prof. Ango Abdullahi who is spokesman of Northern Elders Forum (NEF), made a case for restructuring of the country and return to the parliamentary system of government. He said it was wrong to have abandoned the system and opted for the presidential system. “The presidential system is too expensive”, he said, adding that “recently, someone did an analysis that, the legitimate earning of the National Assembly members per annum can employ and pay 80 percent of our unemployed youths if the youths are to be paid N90,000 monthly.”

He warned that “if care is not taken, thousands of unemployed youths turned out from our universities will one day revolt against the system”. But President Buhari had said in his New Year address to the country that the system was not the problem but the process. Buhari and officials of his government, has regularly argued against restructuring and insinuate that it was aimed at balkanizing Nigeria. Ango was one of the arrow-heads of the ‘Quit North’ notice given to Igbo people because of their seeming disapproval of Buhari’s nepotism.

Hon. Umar Ghali Na’Abba

Na’Abba, a former speaker of the House of Representatives and an ardent Buhari supporter, left PDP to join APC at the wake of the Buhari movement for the presidency. He said he believed in the rhetoric that Buhari came with, and, thought of him as one who had the strength of character and discipline to put things right. But reviewing the President’s performance since May 2015, Na’Abba concluded that the president has failed. He said Buhari has not added any value to democracy since 2015.

For him, the President has no reason to contemplate another term of office because his time so far has been disastrous for the country. “He hasn’t got the capacity, physically and intellectually, to govern Nigeria. This is my honest opinion”, Na’abba said. Speaking further, Na’Abba said: “I decided to move back to APC from PDP to support him because I believed in his utterances. I believed he wanted to add value to our democracy and this is three years into his administration and he doesn’t work with the party; he regards party members as evil. He doesn’t work with anybody. He doesn’t consult with anybody in the party. I am a member of the Board of Trustee of the party even though we don’t have it officially. We had a meeting of such a board or whatever you call it in February 2016. The meeting was called again in November 2017 when he decided that he wanted to get re-elected and he needs us. He promised to reconstitute the boards. He had earlier refused to do that because he believed politicians were responsible for all the evil in this country and he promised to increase the number of ministers. In a nutshell, the president has not added value to democracy by one inch”.

Enter Olusegun Obasanjo

After his consistent opposition to calls for the restructuring of Nigeria to make it work for the people, Olusegun Obasanjo, while being conferred with a Doctor of Philosophy degree by the National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN), changed gear and spoke of the need to restructure the country as soon as it was possible. Commenting after Prof. Eghosa Osaghae had delivered the convocation lecture titled ‘Restructuring and True Federalism: Nigeria in Perspective”, Obasanjo said Nigeria need not turn its back on restructuring. According to Obasanjo, restructuring will unify the country as those why are crying will have a sense of belonging. He warned against ignoring the calls for restructuring.

Obasanjo’s turnaround was a warning signal to Buhari. It sounded a note he probably did not take notice of. The warning became obvious when Obasanjo released his public statement urging Buhari to perish the idea of continuing in office after May 2019.

In the public statement, Obasanjo captured the mood of the country and voiced out, openly, what many say behind doors. His letter was a summary of Buhari’s reign so far. Many a critic had gone underground because of Buhari’s draconian style which respects no court orders. He has held former National Security adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki and leader of Shiite Muslims in Nigeria, Sheik El-Zakzaky in detention for more than two years despite court orders on their release on bail.

With Obasanjo’s vitriolic attack on Buhari, his presidency may be reaching its nunc dimitis. The floodgate of criticism that will help bury the administration is now open. They will come from both local and international platforms, organizations and persons. Remember, that Obasanjo was clever to remind Buhari, in the public statement, continental and international platforms he is aligned with. Those platforms will eventually speak out against Buhari. Even as it is, Obasanjo may have only alerted Buhari that he is not longer viewed with the same lens he was seen in 2015.

And with Buhari who has shown his aversion to criticism surrounding himself with security hounds who are partisanlly loyal to him, there is the possibility of arrest and detention of critics, which when it begins, will cap the president’s poor human right records and eventually eclipse his administration and probably rank his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, as not Nigeria’s worst since 1999.

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